Repricing, Not Recovery: Price Development in the First Half of 2026
Price momentum in the first half of 2026 was stronger than we anticipated at the start of the year. It does not represent a gradual recovery from an earlier downcycle.
Anyone comparing current DRAM and flash prices with the 2023 lows is not looking at the return from a normal market, but at the correction of an exceptional undervaluation. The market has not only recovered in terms of pricing – it has changed structurally.
Both external contract price data and our own analysis of comparable enterprise and data center SKUs show movements well beyond what conventional cycles would explain. The figures reported by the major manufacturers confirm this picture from several independent sources.
Context
Purpose and context of the paper DRAM and Flash Prices 2026 – Market Assessment
This paper is aimed at system integrators, IT solution providers, industrial enterprises, as well as operators of local and regional data centers who seek to understand why prices, availability, and market mechanisms in the memory and infrastructure market are currently developing the way they are.
The objective of this document is not to forecast short-term price movements or to provide concrete procurement recommendations. Instead, we classify the current status quo and explain which structural factors on the supply and demand side are contributing to shortages and rising prices. We deliberately avoid alarmism or oversimplified narratives and focus on transparent causes and interdependencies.
The current market situation is the result of multiple developments that have been building up over years and are now taking effect simultaneously – ranging from changes in manufacturers’ production and capex strategies to new demand drivers and shifting priorities in supply allocation. Individual observations such as empty spot markets or sharply rising prices are therefore less root causes than symptoms of these shifts.
Based on available market data, external sources, and our own market observations, we also provide an objective assessment of possible developments in 2026. This should not be understood as a forecast in the narrow sense, but rather as an interpretation of what appears plausible under the current conditions – and which assumptions can be considered robust from today’s perspective.
Guiding question of the paper: How will DRAM and Flash prices develop in 2026?
The paper consists of three interrelated articles that approach this topic step by step – through a retrospective, an assessment of the current status quo, and our objective outlook for 2026.
Looking Back: The Market Mechanics Have Been Confirmed
The central assumption of our last analysis was that 2023 is not a meaningful reference point for today's price and availability expectations. Back then, the memory market was characterized by oversupply, high inventory levels, short-term spot market logic, and prices that were in part below economically sustainable levels. That phase was not a normal market situation but an overcorrection following the pandemic-driven demand peak.
This context is decisive today. Anyone comparing current DRAM and flash prices with the 2023 lows is not looking at the return from a normal market, but at the correction of an exceptional undervaluation. The market has not only recovered in terms of pricing – it has changed structurally: capacity is prioritized more strictly, larger customers secure volumes on a longer-term basis, and freely available product for the open market is significantly more limited.
The price movement of the first half of 2026 confirms this shift. TrendForce data, as reported by Tom's Hardware, shows conventional DRAM contract prices rising 90 to 95 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, with a further 58 to 63 percent expected for the second quarter. For NAND flash, a further 70 to 75 percent was forecast for the second quarter, following roughly 55 to 60 percent in the first (cf. James, 2026).
The current development is therefore no longer merely a gradual recovery from a downcycle. It is a repricing of the market under changed supply and demand conditions.
Price Development: Stronger Than Expected, but Not Endlessly Sustainable
The first half of 2026 was marked by unusually strong price movements. This is evident not only in publicly reported manufacturer figures, but also in our own analysis of selected enterprise and data center sales. To avoid distortions from differing product mixes, identical or directly comparable SKUs were tracked over time and weighted by volume.
The results of our analysis
Q4/2025 vs. Q2/2026
- Comparable server DRAM SKUs rose by around 299 percent.
- Enterprise SSD SKUs rose by around 176 to 200 percent, depending on the product basket.
January 2026 vs. May 2026
- Comparable server DRAM items were around 81 percent above the January 2026 level.
- For the selected enterprise SSD product baskets, the increase over the same period ranged between around 56 and 136 percent, depending on the item group.
Manufacturer figures: Micron and SK hynix
Manufacturer figures confirm this dynamic as well. Micron reported revenue of USD 41.46 billion for its third fiscal quarter of 2026, up from USD 23.86 billion in the prior quarter and USD 9.30 billion in the year-ago quarter. The company points to the strategic value of memory in the AI era and strongly growing customer demand (cf. Micron, 2026a).
The segment and pricing development is particularly revealing: in its DRAM business, Micron generated USD 31.3 billion in revenue, up 343 percent year-on-year, with prices rising sequentially in the low-60-percent range. In its NAND business, revenue stood at USD 9.9 billion, up 361 percent year-on-year, with prices rising sequentially in the mid-80-percent range.
SK hynix confirms this dynamic from a second, independent source. The company reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of KRW 52.58 trillion, up 60 percent quarter-on-quarter and 198 percent year-on-year – its fourth consecutive record quarter in operating profit (operating profit of KRW 37.61 trillion, a 72 percent margin). DRAM ASPs rose in the mid-60-percent range and NAND ASPs in the mid-70-percent range quarter-on-quarter; the difference versus the TrendForce contract prices cited above is explained by the company-wide product mix (including HBM and mobile DRAM), not by a differing market assessment (cf. SK hynix, 2026).
Another major memory manufacturer describes a similar market situation. For the first quarter of 2026, record results were reported in the memory division, driven by higher average selling prices, strong demand for high-value AI products and limited availability. For the second half of 2026, continued strong demand for server memory is expected, particularly from hyperscalers and the growing adoption of AI and LLMs in enterprises (cf. Samsung, 2026a).
There is, however, also reason to assume that the rapid momentum of the first half will not continue at this intensity: in its outlook for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, Micron notes that the rate of price increases is expected to moderate noticeably (cf. Micron, 2026a).
Yet even a slower rate of price increases does not mean falling prices. From today's perspective, much points to a high price corridor that will only be exited downward to a limited extent.
Condensed into a single sentence, our assessment is: The extreme jump dynamics may subside, while the underlying price level remains high.